No Limit Holdem 101: Holdem Math Part 4 (Implied Odds)

This is intended to be a series of articles about playing on-line no limit holdem cash games. There will be times where I venture into live poker and times where I venture into SNGs, MTTs, Satellites, and games other than no limit holdem, but for the most part this will target no limit holdem cash games.
For the fifth installment of this series, I am going to tackle one of the most important aspects of poker: math.

When I first wrote this article to encompass everything I wanted to discuss about the math of holdem, it was so lengthy it was almost unreadable. So I’m going to break it into several parts.
The fourth math topic I’ll cover is implied odds.
In “Phil Gordon’s Little Blue Book”, Phil defines implied pot odds as “A calculation of pot odds based not on the money that’s currently in the pot but on the total money that you anticipate will be in the pot at the end of hand.”
In other words you are trying to predict the betting that will happen in future rounds should you hit your draw and should you miss your draw.
Implied odds are complicated and imperfect. You don’t really know how your opponent will react in future rounds of betting, but you must do your best to incorporate your predictions into your calculations.
One key guideline to remember here is that the harder your hand is for opponent to read, the higher your implied odds will be. If your opponent doesn’t think he’s beat, then he’s more likely to put more chips into the pot.
So, what hands have high implied odds and what hands have low implied odds? Sets generally have high implied odds. You hold the pair and the third card is on the board. A set is one of the hardest hands to put an opponent on. Conversely trips are not a high implied odds hand. You hold one card and the other two are on the board. Your opponent will be wary of your bets since he can easily see the pair on the board.
Straights using connected cards from your hand that form the middle of a straight are higher in implied odds that straights using connected cards from your hand that form the top end of the straight. An opponent looking at a board of 589 will not as readily put you on a straight as an opponent looking at a board of 789.
Flushes are generally the lowest implied odds of any hand. It is easy for your opponent to see the three suited cards on the board and react accordingly.
A quick note on a concept I’ve seen called reverse implied odds. The concept here is that if you hit your draw but you still don’t have the best hand, that you will put a lot of chips in the pot when you are beat. For instance if you Have a suited King and make your flush but your opponent was playing the suited Ace. You have bad reverse implied odds because you made the second nut flush and you may loose a lot if you don’t put your opponent on the nut flush.
This is really is a convoluted way of saying what will happen if I was wrong in counting my outs. Be very careful when counting your outs. It usually isn’t wise to chase 2nd best draws.
Well, that’s it for implied odds.
In the next installment, we will talk about putting it all together and making a decision based on math.

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October Full Tilt Goals Update through Sunday, October 4

The first four days of October I’ve been a roll in the $5 SNGs. I’ve played 33 $5 SNGs with the following stats:

$5 SNGs: 33
ITM: 17 (51.5%)
1st: 8 (24.2%)
2nd: 5 (15.2%)
3rd: 4 (12.1%)
ROI: 56.2%

This good start has me on verge of moving up to the $10 SNGs.

• Thursday, October 1 – Up $22.83 and earned 15 FTP.
• Friday, October 2 – Up $11.06 and earned 9 FTP.
• Saturday, October 3 – Up $26.99 and earned 51 FTP.
• Sunday, October 4 – Up $37.60 and earned 51 FTP.



1) Ironman One-A-Day – Earn a minimum of one FTP each day to qualify for the Ironman One-A-Day promotion.
• I have earned a minimum of 1 FTP 4 of 4 days in October.


2) Full Tilt Academy Credits – Get to 13,000 Full Tilt Academy credits.
• I am currently at 11,864 Academy credits



Bankroll Updates:
Since End of Project Freeroll: Up $243.42
The Month of October: Up $98.48

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October Full Tilt Goals

For the month of October I am going to simplify my goals and not concentrate so much on accomplishing targeted items instead concentrating on just playing poker.

I’ll play a limited amount of 5NL in the mornings as I have about 30 minutes to play in the morning. I’ll play enough 5NL to get 1 base FTP and that way I can reach the Ironman One-A-Day. In the evening, I’m going to concentrate on playing SNGs and I want to try to get to where I’m more comfortable (and profitable) playing more than 2 SNGs simultaneously.

1) Ironman One-A-Day – Earn a minimum of one FTP each day to qualify for the Ironman One-A-Day promotion.

2) Full Tilt Academy Credits – Get to 13,000 Full Tilt Academy credits.



Bankroll Updates:
Since End of Project Freeroll: Up $94.94 (will be $154.94 once Take2 bonus is paid)
The Month of October: Just Underway

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September Goals Wrap Up

I apologize for the lack of updates. I had a really nasty sinus infection and really struggled through it. Best advice I can give is to never play when you aren't feeling well. The day-by-day results below illustrate extremely well why that principle should be adhered to.

I’ve decided to go to weekly updates (like I did during Project Freeroll) instead of trying to keep up with daily updates.

I’ll get everything caught up for the end of September in this one and then do weekly and end of Month updates starting with October.

• Thursday, September 10 – Down $5.19 and earned 18 base FTP.
• Friday, September 11 – Down $29.02 and earned 55 base FTP.
• Saturday, September 12 – Up $9.75 and earned 7 base FTP.
• Sunday, September 13 – Down $14.30 and earned 52 base FTP.
• Monday, September 14 – Up $5.63 and earned 11 base FTP.
• Tuesday, September 15 – Down $9.28 and earned 54 base FTP.
• Wednesday, September 16 – Up $33.82 and earned 55 base FTP.
• Thursday, September 17 – Up $29.34 and earned 53 base FTP.
• Friday, September 18 – Up $3.38 and earned 76 base FTP.
• Saturday, September 19 – Down $24.65 and earned 60 base FTP.
• Sunday, September 20 – Down $32.26 and earned 75 base FTP.
• Monday, September 21 – Down $14.53 and earned 50 base FTP.
• Tuesday, September 22 – Down $2.02 and earned 50 base FTP.
• Wednesday, September 23 – Up $4.08 and earned 53 base FTP.
• Thursday, September 24 – Up $4.11 and earned 15 base FTP.
• Friday, September 25 – Up $8.24 and earned 54 base FTP.
• Saturday, September 26 – Up $23.06 and earned 15 base FTP.
• Sunday, September 27 – Up $28.75 and earned 51 base FTP.
• Monday, September 28 – Up $22.47 and earned 15 base FTP.
• Tuesday, September 29 – Down $6.17 and earned 12 base FTP.
• Wednesday, September 30 – Up $29.95 and earned 9 base FTP.

1) Ironman One-A-Day – Earn a minimum of one FTP each day to qualify for the Ironman One-A-Day promotion.
• I earned at least one FTP 30 of 30 days in September and qualified for the Ironman One-A-Day promotion.

2) Take 2 – Earn a minimum one FTP each day for 25 days by double tabling cash games to earn the $50 maximum for the Take 2 promotion.
• I earned at least one FTP double tabling cash games 29 of 30 days in September. I cleared all $50 of the Take 2 promotion.

3) Ironman Bronze – Earn a minimum of 50 FTP a day for 20 days to qualify for Ironman Bronze status.
• I earned at least 50 FTP 20 of 30 days in September and reached Ironman Bronze status.

4) Full Tilt Academy Credits – Get to 10,000 Full Tilt Academy credits.
• Current Full Tilt Academy Credits: 11,284


Bankroll Updates:
Since End of Project Freeroll: Up $94.94 (will be $154.94 once Take2 bonus is paid)
The Month of September: Up $45.49 (will be $95.49 once Take2 bonus is paid)

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September Goals Update Through September 9

Up $0.91 in limited play where I also earned 8 base FTP.

1) Ironman One-A-Day – Earn a minimum of one FTP each day to qualify for the Ironman One-A-Day promotion.
• I earned 8 FTP today and have earned at least one FTP 9 of 9 days in September.

2) Take 2 – Earn of minimum one FTP each day for 25 days by double tabling cash games to earn the $50 maximum for the Take 2 promotion.
• I earned 8 FTP today and have earned at least one FTP double tabling cash games 9 of 9 days in September. $5 cleared so far.

3) Ironman Bronze – Earn a minimum of 50 FTP a day for 20 days to qualify for Ironman Bronze status.
• I earned 8 FTP today and have earned at least 50 FTP 7 of 9 days in September.

4) Full Tilt Academy Credits – Get to 10,000 Full Tilt Academy credits.
• Current Full Tilt Academy Credits: 8,855


Bankroll Updates:
Since End of Project Freeroll: Up $24.26
The Month of September: Down $25.19

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September Goals Update Through September 8

Down $28.18 today. I earned 75 base FTP.

1) Ironman One-A-Day – Earn a minimum of one FTP each day to qualify for the Ironman One-A-Day promotion.
• I earned 75 FTP today and have earned at least one FTP 8 of 8 days in September.

2) Take 2 – Earn of minimum one FTP each day for 25 days by double tabling cash games to earn the $50 maximum for the Take 2 promotion.
• I earned 75 FTP today and have earned at least one FTP double tabling cash games 8 of 8 days in September. $5 cleared so far.

3) Ironman Bronze – Earn a minimum of 50 FTP a day for 20 days to qualify for Ironman Bronze status.
• I earned 75 FTP today and have earned at least 50 FTP 7 of 8 days in September.

4) Full Tilt Academy Credits – Get to 10,000 Full Tilt Academy credits.
• Current Full Tilt Academy Credits: 8,855


Bankroll Updates:
Since End of Project Freeroll: Up $23.35
The Month of September: Down $26.10
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No Limit Holdem 101: Holdem Math Part 3 (Pot Odds)

This is intended to be a series of articles about playing on-line no limit holdem cash games. There will be times where I venture into live poker and times where I venture into SNGs, MTTs, Satellites, and games other than no limit holdem, but for the most part this will target no limit holdem cash games.
For the fourth installment of this series, I am going to tackle one of the most important aspects of poker: math.
When I first wrote this article to encompass everything I wanted to discuss about the math of holdem, it was so lengthy it was almost unreadable. So I’m going to break it into several parts.
The third math topic I’ll cover is pot odds.


In “The Poker Players Bible”, Lou Krieger defines pot odds as “The ratio of the size of the pot compared to the size of the bet the player must call to continue the hand.”
And it really is that simple to calculate simple pot odds. Let’s look at one quick example to illustrate. You are playing a ring table with blinds of $0.05 and $0.10. You are the big blind. The action folds around to the small blind who raises to $0.30. You call the raise. There is now $0.60 in the pot. After the flop the small blinds bets ½ pot ($0.30). The total pot is now $0.90. You have to make a call of $0.30. So you are being asked to put $0.30 into a pot current containing $0.90. Your pot odds are “the ratio of the size of the pot” ($0.90) “compared to the size of the bet the player must call” ($0.30). That’s 90 to 30 or 9 to 3 or 3 to 1.

That’s pretty simple, right?

Well you just know I’m not going to write that short of an article. I’m going to make it more complicated than that just so you have the pleasure of reading more of my meticulously written words. (For the humor impaired, that was an attempt at humor.)

In reality, it is that simple. All I’m really going to add here is that you need to consider all possible betting when you make your decisions. For instance in a three player pot with you being the second player to act, don’t overlook that fact that there is another player to act and his actions can change the landscape. You can’t count on his actions enough to add his call or raise into your mathematical calculations, but you should be aware that the way that player acts could effect the way the hands plays out as well as the size of the pot.

The other important fact to consider is future rounds of betting. Don’t overlook that if you are making this decision after the flop and you make the call that may well be faced with another decision after the turn should your draw fail to hit.

Okay. That’s enough on pot odds or at least this aspect of pot odds.
In the next installment, we will talk about the basics of the next mathematical concept, implied odds.

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